Twelve months ago I published 10 Web Predictions for 2015 — my Nostradamus-like look into the year ahead. I’m useless at these forecasts. Despite keeping a close eye on industry developments, I scored a pathetic 4.5 out of 10 last year. Let’s see if I can beat it in 2015…
十二个月前，我发布了2015年的10篇Web预测 -来年，我的风格像Nostradamus。 我对这些预测毫无用处。 尽管我密切关注行业发展，但去年我在10分中却获得了可怜的4.5分 。 让我们看看我能否在2015年击败它……
I’d hoped this would be the case in 2014, but it took another year. At the end of 2015:
我希望2014年会这样，但是又过了一年。 在2015年底：
the picture element, which can serve different images according to the device’s screen size and orientation, is supported in most browsers except Safari and oldIEs
除Safari和oldIE外，大多数浏览器均支持 picture元素，该picture元素可根据设备的屏幕尺寸和方向提供不同的图像
the srcset attribute, which allows you to specify the same image at different resolutions according to screen pixel density and capabilities, is supported in all browsers except oldIEs.
srcset属性允许您根据屏幕像素密度和功能以不同的分辨率指定相同的图像， 除oldIE之外的所有浏览器均支持该属性 。
There will always be caveats, but responsive images work almost everywhere and can fall back to a standard img tag. It’s finally usable: 1 out of 1 — a great start!
总会有一些警告，但是响应式图像几乎可以在任何地方使用，并且可以使用标准的img标签。 终于可以使用了：1/1 – 一个很好的开始！
Web Components comprise:
Web组件包括：
HTML Templates — clone-able chunks of DOM which offer good support in all browsers except oldIE
HTML模板-DOM的可克隆块， 在oldIE之外的所有浏览器中均提供良好的支持
Custom Elements — create new HTML tags, which is supported in Chrome/Opera and can be enabled in Firefox
自定义元素-创建新HTML标签， Chrome / Opera支持该标签， 并且可以在Firefox中启用
HTML Imports — reusable client-side document includes, which is supported in Chrome/Opera and can be enabled in Firefox
HTML导入-包括可重用的客户端文档， Chrome / Opera支持该文档， 并且可以在Firefox中启用
The Shadow DOM — element and styling encapsulation with limited support in Chrome/Opera
Shadow DOM- Chrome / Opera中的有限支持的元素和样式封装
As you can tell, Web Components are a Google initiative, but there’s been little agreement among the vendors since their inception in 2011. There’s a glimmer of hope for completion, but few developers will opt for the technologies until they’re stable. For now, many developers consider that frameworks such as React offer a more viable direction.
如您所知，Web Components是Google的一项举措，但是自2011年成立以来，供应商之间几乎没有达成任何协议。一线希望完成的希望渺茫，但是只有很少的开发人员会选择技术，直到它们稳定为止。 目前，许多开发人员认为React等框架提供了更可行的方向。
No points to see here: 1 out of 2.
这里没什么好看的：2之1。
Node.js was released in May 2009. Popularity increased during 2013/14 with the introduction of task runners such as Grunt and Gulp, but 2015 has been a turning point for Node.js:
Node.js于2009年5月发布。在2013/14年，随着诸如Grunt和Gulp之类的任务运行器的引入，流行度有所提高，但2015年成为Node.js的转折点：
the political squabbles between Node.js and io.js were settled 解决了Node.js和io.js之间的政治争执 the first (non-beta) version 4.0 was released in September with v5 following in October 第一个(非Beta版)版本4.0于9月发布，v5则在10月发布 Node.js is used everywhere — desktops, servers, wearables, embedded devices and more. Node.js无处不在-台式机，服务器，可穿戴设备，嵌入式设备等。It still has some way to go. There is just one Node.js Express installation for every 300 PHP-enabled servers. Even classic ASP has 25 times the number of active sites. However, Node.js is one of the only technologies which hasn’t plateaued and even those using PHP, Ruby or ASP.NET often have it installed to take advantage of the numerous build tools.
它仍有一段路要走。 每300个启用PHP的服务器仅安装一次Node.js Express 。 甚至经典的ASP都具有25倍于活动站点的数量。 但是，Node.js是仅有的几项尚未稳定的技术，即使是使用PHP，Ruby或ASP.NET的技术，也经常安装该技术以利用众多构建工具的优势。
Node.js has gone mainstream: that’s 2 out of 3.
Node.js已经成为主流：3之2。
The number of web development frameworks has continued to explode. Choice is good but finding the best option requires an inordinate amount of time and, inevitably, something better will arrive. Everyone jumped on the AngularJS bandwagon in 2014. It’s been React’s turn in 2015.
Web开发框架的数量一直在爆炸式增长。 选择是件好事，但找到最佳选择则需要花费大量时间，不可避免地会有更好的东西出现。 2014年，每个人都跳上了AngularJS潮流。2015年轮到React了。
While it’s difficult for JavaScript developers to back a particular codebase with confidence, they still do. Work has to be done and a framework offers a good starting point. Longer term, a framework can cause more problems than it solves, and some question the benefits of monolithic solutions.
尽管JavaScript开发人员很难有信心地支持特定的代码库，但他们仍然这样做。 必须完成工作，并且框架是一个很好的起点。 从长远来看，框架会导致更多的问题而不是解决的问题，并且有人质疑整体解决方案的好处。
Half a point seems fair. There has been a small backlash but frameworks remain popular. 2.5 out of 4.
半分似乎很公平。 反弹很小，但是框架仍然很流行。 2.5之4。
My reasoning seemed sound:
我的推理听起来很合理：
advertising is difficult on smaller devices 在较小的设备上做广告很难 Mozilla abandoned Google search Mozilla放弃了Google搜索 Facebook video would compete against YouTube Facebook视频将与YouTube竞争 anti-trust and taxation loopholes were hitting the headlines 反托拉斯和税收漏洞成为头条新闻no one believed the old “Don’t be evil” mantra
没有人相信古老的“别作恶”的口头禅
The result: Google’s share price is higher than ever. What do I know? Bah: 2.5 out of 5.
结果： 谷歌的股价比以往任何时候都要高 。 我知道什么？ 巴赫：2.5 / 5。
Chrome’s market share hit 48% this time last year and was growing at least 0.5% every month. By the end of November 2015, Chrome reached 55.3% and continues to climb.
去年同期，Chrome的市场份额达到48％，并且每月至少增长0.5％。 截至2015年11月， Chrome达到55.3％，并且继续攀升。
Chrome on mobile increased by 8% to reach 37.42% — a little short of my prediction. Half a point seems reasonable: 3 out of 6.
移动设备上的Chrome浏览器增长了8％，达到了37.42％，这比我的预测还差一点。 半点似乎很合理：6分之3。
I thought this was a safe bet. Unfortunately, Firefox’s recent falls place it 0.75% behind Internet Explorer version 11 and below. Add in Microsoft’s new Edge browser and it’s almost 2% behind. Firefox is a great browser but it’s taken a pounding from Chrome. The same can be said for IE/Edge, but Windows users have it installed without taking any action.
我认为这是一个安全的选择。 不幸的是， Firefox的最近下降使它落后Internet Explorer 11及更低版本0.75％。 加上微软新的Edge浏览器，它落后了将近2％。 Firefox是一款出色的浏览器，但Chrome却给它带来了沉重的负担。 对于IE / Edge来说也是如此，但是Windows用户无需采取任何措施即可安装它。
Mozilla is jettisoning a few of its less successful projects, so perhaps they can turn the situation around. However, in 2004 Firefox only had an aging IE6 for competition. The 2015 browser market is considerably healthier.
Mozilla正在抛弃一些不太成功的项目 ，因此也许他们可以扭转局面。 但是，在2004年，Firefox只能使用较老的IE6进行竞争。 2015年浏览器市场更加健康。
This isn’t going well: 3 out of 7.
进行得不好：7分之3
This was an ambitious prediction which didn’t quite make it. Mobile web use accounts for 40% of all activity and saw an increase of 6% during the year. Growth was 14% in 2014 but it seems people can’t dramatically increase use of their devices.
这是一个雄心勃勃的预测，但并没有做到。 移动网络使用量占所有活动的40％，并且在这一年中增长了6％。 2014年的增长率为14％，但似乎人们无法大幅增加其设备的使用率。
Mobile adoption is exploding in Africa and Asia, but I suspect mobile/desktop parity is a year or two away. 3 out of 8.
在非洲和亚洲，移动设备的使用呈爆炸式增长，但我怀疑移动设备/台式机的价格差距还需要一到两年。 3之8。
I wish. Like many in the industry, I have moaned about the state of the web. The trend for large images, irritating social media widgets and intrusive advertising make browsing a slow and painful experience — especially on mobile. The situation has forced companies to propose alternatives such as Facebook Instant and Google Accelerated Mobile Pages, but I’m not convinced a walled, non-standard eco-system is the answer.
我希望。 像行业中的许多人一样，我抱怨着网络的状况 。 大图像的趋势，令人讨厌的社交媒体小部件和侵入性广告使浏览变得缓慢而痛苦，尤其是在移动设备上。 这种情况迫使公司提出诸如Facebook Instant和Google Accelerated Mobile Pages之类的替代方案，但是我不相信有围墙的非标准生态系统是答案。
A small vocal collection of developers are calling for better performance, so I think half a point is fair. Yet, despite the pleas, hideous mobile data costs and the many easy ways to reduce page weight, few consider performance until it’s too late. That’s a shame. 3.5 out of 9.
一个小声音 采集的开发商都在呼吁更好的表现，所以我觉得半分是公平的。 然而，尽管请求，移动数据成本高昂以及减少页面重量的许多简便方法 ，但很少有人考虑性能，直到为时已晚。 真可惜 3.5之9。
Microsoft’s answer to the Babel fish is amazing but it’s not commonly available. Perhaps next year?
微软对通天塔鱼的回答是惊人的，但并不普遍。 也许明年？
That gives me a grand total of 3.5 out of 10. That compares to 4.5 in 2014 and 7 in 2013. I’m clearly getting worse at this — but will that stop me?…
这使我在10的总数中总共得到3.5，而2014年为4. 5，2013 年为 7 。 我显然在这方面变得越来越糟， 但是那会阻止我吗？…
Editor’s note: No, it didn’t stop him! Here are Craig’s predictions for 2016!
编者注：不，这并没有阻止他！ 这是克雷格对2016年的预测 ！
翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/10-web-predictions-2015-results/
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