As of August 6, 2020, the average price of LPG in North China was 2,991 yuan/ton, an increase of 415 yuan/ton or 16.11% from the beginning of July. It can be seen from this that since entering the third quarter, the North China LNG market has changed from a weak consolidation in the second quarter, with a larger price increase and a significant increase in the average price level. Behind the positive upward trend of the market, it is inseparable from multiple favorable guidance. Looking at the news, the overall oil price fluctuates at a high level, with less volatility, and the industry's mentality is relatively strong, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is acceptable. From the perspective of supply and demand, the slow terminal consumption is still constrained by seasonal demand in the off-season. However, Xinhai in the region will suspend maintenance around July 15 and the maintenance period will last for nearly one month. The failure of the Luoyang installation caused unstable discharge of liquefied gas. At the same time, the local quantity is small and the quantity is saved and the supply is reduced. As the supply of liquefied gas resources in North China is in short supply, traders and some downstream users purchase more surrounding resources, resulting in a shortage of resources in the north as a whole, and liquefied gas has achieved a resonance increase. In terms of imported gas, Saudi Aramco's CP prices continued to rise in July and August. The rising cost of imported gas provided a benign guide to the domestic liquefied gas market. The price of LPG in North China remained strong. To sum up, since the beginning of the third quarter, both the oil market trend and the changes in the supply and demand of the North China LPG market have provided favorable conditions for the market to rise. As the Golden 9th period is approaching, the industry is generally optimistic about the market outlook. Whether the price fluctuation of liquefied gas in the future can continue, or whether liquefied gas can continue to form an effective breakthrough at a high level, has become a key point of market focus. First of all, from the perspective of news, the crude oil market is still concerned about the recovery of demand. It is difficult for oil prices to get out of the unilateral market, and there is a high probability that they will continue to fluctuate at a high level. For the liquefied gas market, although crude oil is not expected to be significantly positive, the trend of high fluctuations also provides certain support for the mentality of the industry, and provides a high probability for the trend of the liquefied gas market. Secondly, from the perspective of supply and demand, it is well known that changes in the fundamentals of supply and demand have a critical impact on the LPG market. In the later period, Xinhai Petrochemical is expected to resume work in mid-August. Luoyang Petrochemical's production is still unstable but the possibility of resuming increase is not ruled out in the later period. Dagang Petrochemical's civil gas production is low. If it returns to normal in the later period, it will make a certain contribution to the supply. At the same time, the Tianjin Port in the region is expected to have a relatively concentrated shipping volume in the middle and late ten days, which will have an impact on the North China LPG market. The demand side will gradually weaken due to the off-season. However, considering that there is no clear benefit to support the demand recovery for the time being, the fundamentals of supply and demand will realize the "energy" swap, the low supply side will no longer be good, and the fundamentals of market supply and demand may perform well. To sum up, the average price of LPG market in North China in the second half of the third quarter will be higher than that in the first half, but the price center is difficult to form a strong breakthrough at the current high of 2,991 yuan/ton. Moreover, due to the current high prices, there is a certain degree of resistance in the downstream. At the same time, the futures disk trend has begun to pull back, which will likely suppress the spot market trend in the short term. The North China LPG price does not rule out the possibility of a short-term fall next week. In the later stage, considering that the market is still in demand and the downstream phased purchases are driving, the price of liquefied gas will remain range-bound. The biggest constraint to the market rise is the increase in supply. Zhuo Chuang will continue to follow closely.
