Consumer demand for bandwidth will start to exceed supply from as early as next year according to a new report from Nemertes Research. Internet traffic is growing at around 60% per year, and that does not include the expected exponential rise in demand from India and China. The problem could lead to connectivity disruption and “brownouts” where internet devices could go offline for several minutes at a time.
Nemertes Research的最新报告显示，从明年开始，消费者对带宽的需求将开始超过供应。 互联网流量每年以大约60％的速度增长，这还不包括印度和中国预期的需求呈指数增长。 该问题可能导致连接中断和“电源不足”，Internet设备一次可能会脱机几分钟。
The popularity of bandwidth-hungry websites such as YouTube is partly to blame. The video sharing website now generates more traffic than the whole of internet did in the year 2000. More people are also working from home or using their PCs for cheap entertainment: by 2012, the internet will be 75 times larger than it was in 2002.
诸如YouTube之类的带宽占用量大的网站的受欢迎程度在一定程度上应归咎于此。 现在，视频共享网站产生的流量比2000年整个互联网产生的流量更多。还有更多人在家中工作或使用PC进行廉价娱乐：到2012年，互联网将比2002年增长75倍。
US telecoms companies are currently spending almost $40 billion per year upgrading cables and network infrastructures to increase capacity. However, demand keeps increasing and monthly traffic has already reached 8 exabytes (a quintillion, or a million-trillion, bytes – a single exabyte is equivalent to 50,000 years’ of DVD-quality video).
美国电信公司目前每年花费近400亿美元来升级电缆和网络基础设施，以提高容量。 但是，需求不断增长，每月的流量已经达到8 EB(十亿分之一，即一万亿兆字节–一个EB就相当于50,000年DVD质量的视频)。
The report warns that an unreliable internet would be devastating for business and Web2.0 applications could be rendered useless. It estimates that $140 billion must be spent worldwide to bolster network capacity. That amount of investment is unlikely, especially in the current economic climate.
该报告警告说，不可靠的互联网将对企业造成破坏，Web2.0应用程序可能变得无用。 据估计，全球必须花费1400亿美元来增强网络容量。 如此多的投资是不可能的，尤其是在当前的经济环境下。
The internet has transformed every aspect of our lives, and there is too much at stake to let it become unstable. In the short term, we can expect:
互联网改变了我们生活的方方面面，危在旦夕，以至于它变得不稳定。 在短期内，我们可以期望：
slower net access 上网速度较慢 strictly-metered bandwidth charges 严格计量的带宽费用 ISP bandwidth management, where individual websites are charged for improved connectivity (a move that could compromise net neutrality). ISP带宽管理，其中每个网站都负责改善连接性(此举可能会损害网络中立性)。An unreliable internet will also be used by fewer users, which could naturally reduce bandwidth demand.
不可靠的互联网也将被更少的用户使用，这自然会减少带宽需求。
Do you believe the Nemertes report? Is the internet approaching critical mass? What can be done to prevent the problem?
您相信Nemertes报告吗？ 互联网正在逼近临界点吗？ 可以采取什么措施来预防该问题？
翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/internet-brownouts-2010/
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