In my predictions for 2009, I guessed that Facebook would have a huge year in 2009, which would pave the way for an IPO in 2010. I was pretty vague on the details, though, with the only measurable reason why Facebook might be heading toward IPO land being my prediction that they’d expand on their search deal over the coming year. A lot of readers disagreed with me in the comments, predicting instead that Facebook would head the way of previous social networks like MySpace and Friendster — they’d be yesterday’s news once all those fickle teenagers move on to the next big thing, whatever that might be.
在我对2009年的预测中 ，我猜想Facebook在2009年会有丰收的一年，这将为2010年的IPO铺平道路。尽管如此，我对细节还是含糊不清，这是Facebook可能走向的唯一可衡量的原因IPO土地是我的预测，他们会在来年扩大搜索交易。 很多读者在评论中不同意我的看法，相反，他们预测Facebook将引领MySpace和Friendster之类的先前社交网络的发展-一旦所有这些善变的青少年转向下一件大事，它们将成为昨日新闻。是。
Here, though, is why I think that won’t happen to Facebook at all, and instead 2009 will be a huge year for the company.
不过，这就是为什么我认为Facebook根本不会发生这种情况，而2009年对公司来说将是丰收的一年。
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced this morning that Facebook now has 150 million active users (unique users who logged in over the past month), half of which use the site daily. Facebook has added about 10 million users over the past 3 weeks, which suggests that at their current growth rate the site would double its active user base to 300 million by year end.
Facebook首席执行官马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg) 今天早上宣布 ，Facebook现在拥有1.5亿活跃用户(在过去一个月内登录过的唯一用户)，其中一半每天都在使用该网站。 Facebook在过去三周内增加了约1000万用户，这表明该网站以目前的增长率将其活跃用户群增加一倍，到年底达到3亿。
What’s more impressive than their incredible growth, which Zuckerberg says would make Facebook the eighth most populated country in the world, is that the growth is happening everywhere — across 170 countries and in every age group. Using AllFacebook’s Demographic Statistics tool, it’s easy to see where growth is happening on Facebook. I randomly jumped around from country to country, male to female, and across different age groups and couldn’t many that didn’t see user growth over the past month. Spanish males aged 60-65? Growing. Australian females ages 26-34? Growing. Mexican 18-25 year olds? Growing. Americans 45-54? Yup.
扎克伯格说，他们的惊人增长使Facebook成为世界第八大人口大国，这比其令人难以置信的增长更为令人印象深刻的是，这种增长正在遍及170个国家和各个年龄段的任何地方。 使用AllFacebook的人口统计工具 ，可以轻松查看Facebook上正在发生的增长。 我从一个国家到另一个国家，从男性到女性，在不同的年龄段随机跳来跳去，在过去一个月中没有看到用户增长的人并不多。 60-65岁的西班牙男性？ 生长。 26-34岁的澳大利亚女性？ 生长。 墨西哥18-25岁？ 生长。 美国人45-54？ 对。
Give it a try yourself. There are likely some demographic groups that are flat or declining (such as in China), but the vast, vast majority are growing in line with the rest of Facebook. This is universal, mainstream growth. Further, as a percentage of all web visits, Facebook is growing while chief rivals are shrinking, and the social network might be approaching “Google-like” dominance, where the prospect of being dethroned is a near impossibility.
自己尝试一下。 可能有一些人口统计数据持平或下降(例如在中国)，但绝大多数与Facebook的其余部分保持一致。 这是普遍的主流增长。 此外，在所有网络访问的百分比中，Facebook在增长，而主要竞争对手在萎缩 ，并且社交网络可能正在接近“类似Google的”统治地位，因此被迫退位的可能性几乎是不可能的。
We’ve written extensively about why Facebook Connect wins and what it means for the company. Simply put, Facebook Connect wins because users understand it, and there’s a clear value proposition for developers.
我们已经广泛撰写了有关Facebook Connect获胜的原因及其对公司的意义的文章。 简而言之，Facebook Connect之所以会获胜是因为用户了解它，并且开发人员有明确的价值主张。
An anecdote: When Wetpaint dropped OpenID support in November, they said that less than 200 registered users out of over a million accounts ever used OpenID. Facebook Senior Platform Manager Dave Morin, meanwhile, says that initial tests of Facebook Connect found that users were logging in via the system over their pre-existing login credentials at a 2:1 ratio. Early Connect adopter Govit.com saw 58% of new users choosing to login with Facebook. That paints a pretty clear picture: users understand “login with Facebook” in ways that they have not understood OpenID — which most users are still completely oblivious to.
轶事：当Wetpaint 在11月放弃对OpenID的支持时 ，他们说在使用过OpenID的一百万个帐户中，只有不到200个注册用户。 与此同时，Facebook高级平台经理Dave Morin表示，对Facebook Connect的初步测试发现，用户通过系统以其原有的登录凭据以2：1的比率登录。 早期连接的采用者Govit.com 看到58％的新用户选择使用Facebook登录 。 这描绘了一个非常清晰的画面：用户以他们不了解OpenID的方式理解“使用Facebook登录”，而大多数用户仍然完全不了解 。
Connect also comes with a built in marketing channel, which makes it a clear choice for many web developers.
Connect还具有内置的营销渠道，这使其成为许多Web开发人员的明确选择。
As Chris Saad writes, “Facebook [essentially] is trying to replace all logins with their own, and control the creation, distribution and application of the social graph using their proprietary platform.” As we wrote in December, if Facebook Connect does win, it might mean that Facebook is basically alone at the helm controlling our entire social experience across the web.
正如克里斯·萨德(Chris Saad)所说： “ Facebook实质上是试图用自己的登录名替换所有登录名，并使用其专有平台来控制社交图的创建，分布和应用。” 正如我们在12月所写的那样，如果Facebook Connect确实获胜，则可能意味着Facebook基本上独自掌控着我们整个网络的社交体验。
Because Facebook is apparently increasingly being looked at in a position of trust, many (most?) users might not really mind that eventuality.
由于Facebook 越来越受到信任的关注 ，因此许多(大多数？)用户可能并不真正介意这种可能性。
Throughout the 90s the killer app for the web was communication, and it came in the form of email. Everyone used email for both business and socializing. But it looks like the reign of email is coming to a close. It might not ever completely disappear, but it’s no longer the go to communication tool for the younger generation.
在整个90年代，网络上的杀手级应用是通信，它以电子邮件的形式出现。 每个人都使用电子邮件进行业务和社交。 但是，电子邮件的统治似乎即将结束。 它可能永远不会完全消失，但是它不再是年轻一代的通讯工具。
For the so-called Generations Y and Z (hopefully the last of the lettered generations), email seems old fashioned. “Kids today prefer one to many communication; email to them is antiquated,” says Hitwise general manager of global research Bill Tancer.
对于所谓的Y世代和Z世代(希望是最后几个字母世代)，电子邮件似乎是过时的。 “今天的孩子们喜欢一对多的交流； 寄给他们的电子邮件是过时的，” Hitwise全球研究总经理Bill Biller说。
Instead, they use social networks. Next year’s incoming class of 2013 at Boston College won’t even receive @bc.edu email addresses. Erik Qualman recently wrote on Search Engine Watch that “Are you on Facebook?” is the new “can I get your phone number?” He talks about a “seismic shift in the way information is exchanged among people,” and Facebook is clearly in the best position to benefit.
相反，他们使用社交网络 。 明年波士顿大学2013年的新生班甚至都不会收到@ bc.edu电子邮件地址 。 Erik Qualman最近在Search Engine Watch上写道 ：“您在Facebook上吗？” 是新的“我能得到您的电话号码吗？” 他谈到“人们之间信息交流方式的地震性转变”，而Facebook显然处于受益的最佳位置。
Qualman says that it is counter-intuitive for brands to try to pull people off social networks to market to them. It would be like “meeting a pretty girl within a bar and asking if she would like a drink. When she responds “yes” rather than ordering a drink from the bartender, you grab her and throw her into your car and drive her back to your place, since after all, you have beer in your fridge,” he writes. “This is not a sound courtship strategy, nor are analogous social media strategies employed by companies “courting” potential customers.”
Qualman说，品牌试图使人们脱离社交网络向他们推销产品是违反直觉的。 这就像“在酒吧里遇到一个漂亮的女孩，问她是否想喝一杯。 当她回答“是”而不是从调酒师那里订购饮料时，您会抓住她并将其扔到车上，然后开车回到原处，因为毕竟冰箱里有啤酒，” 他写道 。 “这不是一个合理的求爱策略，也不是公司“寻找”潜在客户的类似社交媒体策略。”
As the younger generation grows up looking at Facebook as the Internet (a view that becomes even more likely if Facebook Connect succeeds massively), then brands will be forced to communicate with people where they go to communicate — i.e., on Facebook.
随着年轻一代的成长，将Facebook视为互联网(如果Facebook Connect大规模成功，这种可能性就更大了)，那么品牌将被迫与他们要交流的人们进行交流，即在Facebook上。
Facebook knows a lot about its 150 million users — where they live, how old they are, who their friends are, what sort of music, movies, TV, books, food, and activities they like, even what they’re up to right now. As VentureBeat points out, because Facebook emphasized privacy early on — only people you’ve approved as friends get to see your details — most profiles on the site are full of legit, marketable information.
Facebook对其1.5亿用户了解很多，包括他们的居住地，年龄，朋友的身份，喜欢的音乐，电影，电视，书籍，食物和活动类型，甚至是正确的活动。现在。 正如VentureBeat所指出的那样 ，由于Facebook早就强调隐私-只有获得您批准的朋友可以看到您的详细信息-该网站上的大多数个人资料都包含合法的，可销售的信息。
What that also means is that Facebook is built on a foundation of real-world connections. Unlike on MySpace where half your friends might be people you’ve met using an assumed name over the web, or bands or products you like but have no personal connection to, your Facebook social graph is likely full of people you know and trust. And even though I’ve argued that social search will never replace traditional search, Facebook does enable a new kind of discovery.
这也意味着Facebook建立在现实世界联系的基础上。 与MySpace上的朋友不同，您的朋友中有一半可能是您在网上使用假名认识的人，或者是您喜欢的乐队或产品，但没有人脉关系，而您的Facebook社交图可能充满了您认识和信任的人。 尽管我一直认为社交搜索永远不会取代传统搜索 ，但Facebook 确实实现了一种新的发现方式。
“Simply put: they broker transactions from finding lost friends, staying in touch with existing friends, making new friends, to finding and buying products and services,” writes John Furrier, which is a good way to explain what I’m talking about. This is where the money will come from.
“简而言之：他们从寻找失去的朋友，与现有朋友保持联系，结交新朋友到寻找和购买产品与服务来进行交易中介，” 约翰·弗里尔(John Furrier)写道 ，这是解释我在说什么的好方法。 这就是钱的来源。
This is what Alex Iskold called “the mighty pipe” in 2007 shortly after the launch of the Facebook Platform. “Being a pipe that gets a cut in all transactions that occurs between a lot of Facebook users and a lot of outside services would make Facebook into a gigantic marketplace,” he wrote then. Iskold was writing about the platform, but it will really come via Facebook Connect.
这就是Alex Iskold在Facebook平台推出后不久于2007年所称的“ 强大管道 ”。 他写道：“成为削减许多Facebook用户和许多外部服务之间发生的所有交易的管道，将使Facebook成为一个巨大的市场。” Iskold正在撰写有关该平台的文章，但实际上它将通过Facebook Connect来实现。
Beyond the opportunity for a transactional marketplace, if Connect wins, Facebook will end up knowing even more about you. “Each service adds a few more data points about you inside the Facebook brain, which is quite aware of your activities inside the Facebook ecosystem,” wrote blogger Om Malik last July. “The brain can then crunch all that information and build a fairly accurate image of who you are, what you like and what might interest you. With all that information at its disposal, Facebook can build a fairly large cash register [via advertising].”
如果Connect获胜，那么除了交易市场的机会之外，Facebook最终将进一步了解您。 博客作者Om Malik在去年7月写道： “每项服务都会在Facebook大脑中添加有关您的更多数据点，这非常了解您在Facebook生态系统中的活动。” “然后，大脑可以处理所有这些信息，并建立关于您是谁，您喜欢什么以及您可能感兴趣的东西的相当准确的图像。 利用所有这些信息，Facebook可以(通过广告)建立相当大的收银机。”
翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/why-facebook-will-have-a-big-2009/
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