ibm_mq:2009
It’s that time of the year again. As we noted earlier in the week, nothing is more fun for tech bloggers than looking ahead to next year and trying to predict the future. Prediction posts are an annual tradition in the blogosphere, and we enjoy doing them.
又是一年中的那个时候。 正如我们在本周早些时候指出的那样，对于技术博客来说，没有什么比展望明年并预测未来更有趣了。 预测帖子是Blog领域的一项年度传统，我们非常乐意做。
So below are eight prognostications for the new year in web tech. Of course, if you saw our list of 2008’s top stories, you’ll know that reality is often too wacky to predict — and that A LOT happens in a single year. Remember to check out how we did with last year’s predictions, as well. And let us know in the comments what you think 2009 has in store for the web.
因此，以下是Web技术新的一年的八种预测。 当然，如果您看到了我们列出的2008年热门新闻 ，您会知道现实常常太难以预测了-而且很多事情都是在一年内发生的。 切记还要检查一下我们如何处理去年的预测 。 并在评论中让我们知道您认为2009年网络存储的内容。
Note: I use the corporate “we” in this post, but these predictions are really just my own and not those of anyone else at SitePoint. So, don’t blame them for the terrible lack of foresight!
注意：我在本文中使用公司的“我们”，但是这些预测实际上只是我自己的，而不是SitePoint上其他任何人的预测。 因此，不要因为缺乏远见而责怪他们！
1. Twitter gets a business model. Twitter has a bunch of different options when it comes to monetization. Targeted ads in the Twitter stream based on what you tweet about, built in micro payments, charging high volume users, charging developers to use the API, etc. Twitter may try some or all of these options, but we think the most likely path to monetization is in corporate accounts. When SitePoint ran our highly successful and well publicized book giveaway via Twitter, it was only really made possible because we were able to get on Twitter’s white list and send a large number of direct messages without being blocked. Prior to getting on that list, things didn’t go nearly as smoothly. That’s the sort of added functionality that only corporate accounts would likely need, and that Twitter could charge for.
1. Twitter获得了一种商业模式。 关于获利，Twitter有很多不同的选择。 根据您的推文，内置的小额支付，向大量用户收费，向开发人员收取使用API的费用等，在Twitter流中定位广告，Twitter可以尝试部分或全部这些选项，但我们认为最可能的途径是获利是在公司帐户中。 当SitePoint通过Twitter运行我们非常成功且广为宣传的书籍赠品时，这才真正成为可能，因为我们能够进入Twitter的白名单并发送大量直接消息而不会被阻止。 在进入该列表之前，事情进展得不太顺利。 那是只有公司帐户才可能需要的附加功能，而Twitter可以付费。
2. Lifestreaming gets big, but not via FriendFeed. FriendFeed made a huge impact over the past year among the early adopter crowd, but lifestreaming hasn’t quite made its way into the mainstream. People are just now beginning to regularly use enough social services at once — YouTube, Flickr, Twitter, Digg, blogging — that aggregation will start to make sense. In 2009, it will be commonplace to publish your online life in a single stream, but it will be done via Facebook.
2.生命流变得很大，但不是通过FriendFeed。 过去一年，FriendFeed在早期采用者群体中产生了巨大影响，但是生命流还没有完全进入主流。 人们现在刚刚开始定期定期使用足够的社交服务-YouTube，Flickr，Twitter，Digg和博客-这样，聚合将变得有意义。 在2009年，将您的在线生活一次性发布会很普遍，但这将通过Facebook完成。
3. The Web OS will really start to become a reality. The Web OS race is on. In 2009 we’ll start to see the vision really begin to coalesce from major players like Adobe (Flash, Flex, AIR), Google (Chrome, Gears, Native Client), and Microsoft (Silverlight, Live Mesh), among others.
3. Web操作系统将真正开始成为现实。 Web OS竞赛正在进行中。 在2009年，我们将开始看到这种愿景已真正开始与Adobe(Flash，Flex，AIR)，Google(Chrome，Gears，Native Client)和Microsoft(Silverlight，Live Mesh)等主要参与者合并。
4. Some really great stuff will come out of Yahoo!, but it won’t be enough to save them. Yahoo! has been doing some awesome stuff by opening up their search results and most popular pages and applications by making them more social and giving developers more hooks. That’s the sort of thing that will ultimately make the web a better place, but unfortunately it won’t be enough to save Yahoo! on Wall Street. Their stock will continue to slide, unless they sign a big search deal with Microsoft or sell their search business outright to focus on the content/platform side.
4. Yahoo!会带来一些很棒的东西，但还不足以保存它们。 雅虎！ 通过打开搜索结果以及最流行的页面和应用程序，使其更加社交化并为开发人员提供更多的吸引力，他们一直在做一些很棒的事情。 那样的事情最终会使网络变得更好，但是不幸的是，这不足以拯救Yahoo!。 在华尔街。 他们的股票将继续下滑，除非他们与微软签署了一项大的搜索交易协议或直接出售其搜索业务以专注于内容/平台方面。
5. Chrome will take at least 5% but not more than 10% of the browser market by year’s end. Google’s browser, now out of beta and being actively promoted by Google, will take at least 5% of the browser market by year’s end and as much as 10%. IE will continue to decline with both Chrome and Mozilla Firefox on the scene, but Chrome will actually cause Mozilla’s growth to stall, and will probably even steal some market share from Firefox once it supports extensions.
5.到年底，Chrome将至少占据浏览器市场的5％但不超过10％。 谷歌的浏览器现已退出测试版，并受到谷歌的积极推广，到年底将占据至少5％的浏览器市场，多达10％。 IE将会随着Chrome和Mozilla Firefox的出现而继续下降，但是Chrome实际上将导致Mozilla的增长停滞，并且一旦支持扩展功能，甚至可能会抢占Firefox的一些市场份额。
6. Microsoft Office will make people comfortable with web applications. When Microsoft pushes out a web-based version of Office, users in the mainstream will finally start to become comfortable will web apps. Google’s Docs and Spreadsheets apps have certainly already pushed a fair number of people in that direction, but Microsoft will have a vastly bigger impact on the adoption of web applications by mainstream users. Their software + services vision will emerge in 2009 as the clear future of software.
6. Microsoft Office将使人们对Web应用程序感到满意。 当Microsoft推出基于Web的Office版本时，主流用户最终将开始对Web应用程序感到满意。 Google的Docs和Spreadsheets应用程序肯定已经向这个方向推动了很多人，但是Microsoft将对主流用户对Web应用程序的采用产生更大的影响。 他们的软件+服务愿景将在2009年作为软件的明确未来出现。
7. Facebook takes over the web. Well, not literally. But Facebook will continue to grow in size worldwide, and will finally over take MySpace as the biggest social network in the US. A lot of the cool web applications that early adopters love, such as FriendFeed, will reach the mainstream as features of Facebook, and Facebook Connect will help spread the Facebook brand by entangling it with other popular sites on the web that people know and trust. The company will also expand their search deal with Microsoft and make web search integration more prominent and more powerful. For many users, Facebook will become their default search engine in 2009, and this will pave the way for an IPO in 2010.
7. Facebook接管网络。 好吧，不是字面上的意思。 但是，Facebook将继续在全球范围内发展壮大，并最终将把MySpace视为美国最大的社交网络。 许多早期采用者喜欢的很酷的Web应用程序(例如FriendFeed)将成为Facebook的主流功能，Facebook Connect通过将其与人们知道并信任的其他流行网站缠结在一起，将有助于传播Facebook品牌。 该公司还将扩大与微软的搜索交易，使网络搜索集成更加突出和强大。 对于许多用户而言，Facebook将在2009年成为其默认搜索引擎，这将为2010年的IPO铺平道路。
8. Palm will surprise everyone at CES… Nova will be good. Palm’s new entry into the smartphone market will be very impressive. The Nova operating system will look like something that could challenge Android, Blackberry, and the iPhone in the mobile market, but success will depend on the hardware.
8. Palm将在CES上给所有人带来惊喜……Nova会很好。 Palm进入智能手机市场的新举动将令人印象深刻。 Nova操作系统看起来可能会在移动市场上挑战Android，Blackberry和iPhone，但成功取决于硬件。
What are your predictions for the year 2009? Let us know in the comments.
您对2009年有何预测？ 让我们在评论中知道。
翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/whats-on-tap-predictions-for-2009/
ibm_mq:2009
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