Predicting what will happen over the next year has become an annual game for tech bloggers. It’s fun to try to hazard a guess at what might happen over the next twelve months, then be thoroughly embarrassed at year’s end when all of our predictions turned out wrong. We’ll publish a list of predictions for 2009 later this week. but in this post, let’s take a look at 2008 and see which of our predictions from last year were on target, and which were way off.
预测明年会发生什么已经成为技术博客的年度游戏。 尝试猜测下一个十二个月可能发生的事情，然后在年底所有我们的预测都被证明是错误的时候彻底感到尴尬，这很有趣。 我们将在本周晚些时候发布2009年的预测列表。 但是在这篇文章中，让我们看一下2008年，看看我们去年做出的哪些预测是可以实现的，哪些还没有实现。
My predictions last year were made while at ReadWriteWeb, while SitePoint posted predictions from software developer Brian Suda.
我去年的预测是在ReadWriteWeb上做出的，而SitePoint则发布了软件开发人员Brian Suda的预测 。
Prediction: Facebook plateaus, and no one cares What happened: Pretty well off on this one. Facebook has not plateaued at all. In fact, Facebook overtook MySpace globally and is rapidly catching up to its rival in the US. Not only has growth accelerated in recent months, but so has time spent online, where it is closing in on Google. Verdict: Wrong
预测： Facebook处于平稳状态，无人问津发生了什么：在这方面做得很好。 Facebook根本没有稳定。 实际上，Facebook在全球范围内超过了MySpace，并正在Swift追赶其在美国的竞争对手。 不仅最近几个月的增长加速 了，在线上花费的时间也增加了，在线上已经接近了Google。 判决：错误
Prediction: Open data proliferates, walls come down What happened: Brian’s prediction about the proliferation of open data standards was optimistic, but perhaps too idealistic. Certainly open data standards have taken a huge leap forward this year with the creation of things like the Open Web Foundation, but most people are still not aware of the issues surrounding data portability and data ownership. Verdict: Not quite
预测：开放数据激增，围墙倒塌发生的事情：布莱恩对开放数据标准激增的预测是乐观的，但也许过于理想化。 当然，随着Open Web Foundation之类的创建，开放数据标准在今年已经取得了巨大的飞跃，但是大多数人仍然不了解围绕数据可移植性和数据所有权的问题。 判决：不太
Prediction: Pull is dead, in favor of push What happened: To be honest, I’m not really sure how far projects like Instant Syndicating Standards have come over the past year. It could be that push is far more prevalent than it was a year ago (if anyone has any thoughts, please share them in the comments), but it is also certainly the case that pull as a method of data retrieval is going strong — email, RSS, even the Twitter API are all pull. Verdict: It’s a push (ha!)
预测：拉死了，赞成推死发生了什么：老实说，我不确定在过去的一年中像Instant Syndicated Standards这样的项目进展了多少。 推送可能比一年前更为流行(如果有人有任何想法，请在评论中分享)，但是拉动作为数据检索方法的趋势肯定也很强大-电子邮件，RSS，甚至Twitter API都被拉。 判决：这是推(哈！)
Prediction: There will be more nontraditional connected devices What happened: Like the Kindle, Brian predicted we’d see more non-computer, non-mobile phone devices that are connected to the Internet. Certainly, the Internet is making its way into more and more household devices, such as Blu-ray players, game consoles, and even refrigerators, but I’m not sure activity in that area picked up noticeably in 2008. The lion’s share of non-PC web attention went to the iPhone over the past year. Verdict: Not quite
预测：将会有更多非传统的连接设备发生了什么：像Kindle一样，布莱恩(Brian)预测我们会看到更多与互联网连接的非计算机，非移动电话设备。 当然，互联网正在进入越来越多的家用设备中，例如蓝光播放器，游戏机，甚至是冰箱，但我不确定该领域的活动在2008年会显着增长。 -PC网络的注意力在过去一年中转移到了iPhone上。 判决：不太
Prediction: Ubiquitous connectivity will grow in 2008, but so will offline web apps What happened: Brian hit the nail on the head with this one. We’ve certainly begun to see more of an adoption of web applications this year. Traffic to Google Docs, Zoho, and Salesforce.com is up over 130% to each site, according to Compete. However, we’ve also seen more development happening with offline data store platforms like Google’s Gears and Adobe’s AIR, and we’ve seen Microsoft start to push the idea of software + services very hard. Yahoo! engineers even talked about desktop web applications as the future. The cloud will go down, so offline support remains important. Verdict: Spot on
预测：无处不在的连接将在2008年增长，但这样将离线网络应用程序发生了什么事：布莱恩一针见血的头部与这一个。 当然，今年我们肯定会开始更多地采用Web应用程序。 据Compete称，每个网站到Google Docs，Zoho和Salesforce.com的访问量增长了130％以上。 但是，我们还看到离线数据存储平台(例如Google的Gears和Adobe的AIR)正在发生更多的开发，并且我们已经看到Microsoft开始非常努力地推动软件+服务的构想。 雅虎！ 工程师甚至谈到了桌面Web应用程序的未来。 云将关闭 ，因此脱机支持仍然很重要。 判决：当场
Prediction: In 2008, we’ll begin to see a wider acceptance of applications presented as services What happened: See the last item on this list — we’ve definitely started to see that shift. Google is building a Web OS, and Microsoft is even bringing Office online as a web app. Verdict: Spot on
预测：在2008年，我们将开始看到对以服务形式呈现的应用程序的更广泛的接受。 发生的事情：请参阅此列表中的最后一项-我们肯定已经开始看到这种转变。 Google正在构建一个Web OS ，Microsoft甚至正在将Office作为Web应用程序联机 。 判决：当场
Prediction: Home computer hardware kits will be commercially available What happened: Building your own computer has generally only been something that the geekiest among us have endeavored to do, but Brian predicted that by the end of this year, it would be more commonplace, with kits available at big box stores. If they are available, though, most people still aren’t buying them, opting instead to purchase pre-assembled computers from Dell, HP, and Apple, as in the past. Verdict: Wrong
预测：家用计算机硬件套件将在市场上出售发生的事情：建造自己的计算机通常只是我们中间最讨厌的人所要做的事情，但是Brian预测，到今年年底，这将变得更加普遍。大盒子商店提供的工具包。 不过，如果有的话，大多数人仍然不会购买，而是像过去一样选择从Dell，HP和Apple购买预组装的计算机。 判决：错误
Prediction: Two-dimensional barcodes proliferate What happened: Well, they’re certainly popping up more and more, especially in Asia. But they’re far from the norm (at least, where I live in the US, they’re still the exception to the rule). As cell phone cameras become more accurate and more common, though, Brian’s prediction might start to look better. Verdict: Not quite
预测：二维条形码激增发生的事情：嗯，它们肯定会越来越多地出现，尤其是在亚洲。 但是它们与规范相去甚远(至少，在我住在美国的地方，它们仍然是规则的例外)。 但是，随着手机摄像机变得越来越精确和普及，Brian的预测可能会开始看起来更好。 判决：不太
Prediction: Geographically based search makes an appearance What happened: Until very recently, this prediction was looking like one that had missed the mark. But the iPhone application platform changed that. Geo-based search is still very much in its infancy, but apps that use your location as a guide when, say, searching for a place to eat certainly exist now. How popular or useful they are is another story. Verdict: Sort of right
预测：基于地理位置的搜索出现了。发生的事情：直到最近，这种预测看起来仍像是错过了标记。 但是iPhone应用程序平台改变了这一点。 基于地理位置的搜索仍处于起步阶段，但是现在确实存在以您的位置为指导的应用程序，例如在搜索吃饭的地方。 它们是如何受欢迎或有用的是另一个故事。 判决：正确
Prediction: Tumblr will be acquired What happened: As I recall, I mostly made this prediction as a joke because fellow RWW blogger Marshall Kirkpatrick had already guessed that Twitter would be acquired. In any case, we were both wrong — neither company has been sold. Verdict: Wrong
预测： Tumblr将被收购发生的事情：我记得，我之所以把这个预测当做一个笑话，是因为RWW博客博主Marshall Kirkpatrick已经猜到了Twitter将被收购。 无论如何，我们俩都是错的-两家公司都没有被出售。 判决：错误
Prediction: Privacy will be a growing concern in the mainstream, but ultimately, things won’t change What happened: Privacy has indeed become a bigger issue for many mainstream users, especially following well publicized privacy gaffes like Facebook’s Beacon debacle at the end of 2007. However, most companies haven’t changed policies drastically in 2008, and most users haven’t seemed to care. Hey, 61% of users use the same password for everything, so privacy can’t be a huge deal, right? Verdict: Not quite
预测：隐私将成为主流中日益增长的关注点，但最终不会改变。发生的事情：隐私确实已成为许多主流用户的更大问题，尤其是在2007年底Facebook信标(Beacon)崩溃等广为人知的隐私狂之后但是，大多数公司在2008年都没有对政策进行大刀阔斧的改变，而且大多数用户似乎也不太在意。 嘿，有61％的用户在所有内容上都使用相同的密码 ，因此隐私不是一件大事，对吗？ 判决：不太
Prediction: OpenID will be adopted by more startups and larger web companies, but the mainstream still won’t use it What happened: OpenID found partners this year in Google, Yahoo!, and Microsoft, but most people are still unaware of what it is. Yahoo! published a study October that concluded that mainstream users were mostly unaware of OpenID or how to use it. With the big three web companies on board, a huge number of people now actually have OpenID accounts and don’t even know it. Verdict: Spot on
预测： OpenID将被更多的初创公司和较大的Web公司采用，但主流仍然不会使用它。发生的情况： OpenID今年在Google，Yahoo！和Microsoft中找到了合作伙伴，但大多数人仍然不知道它是什么。 。 雅虎！ 十月份发表的一项研究得出结论，主流用户大多不了解OpenID或如何使用它。 有了三大网络公司，现在实际上有很多人拥有OpenID帐户，甚至都不知道。 判决：当场
Prediction: Facebook will continue to grow and their platform will be adopted by other large social networks What happened: Facebook did grow — see above — but as far as I know, their FBOpen platform wasn’t adopted by any major social network. (Bebo already licensed the Facebook platform prior to the social network open sourcing it.) Verdict: Half right
预测： Facebook将继续增长，其平台将被其他大型社交网络采用。发生的事情： Facebook确实在增长(请参见上文)，但是据我所知，他们的FBOpen平台并未被任何主要的社交网络采用。 (Bebo在社交网络开放源代码之前已经获得了Facebook平台的许可。) 判决：正确的一半
Prediction: Mobile web usage will be a big story in 2008 What happened: Due to the iPhone becoming one of the best-selling smartphones of 2008 (it is now the smartphone leader in the US), the mobile web has indeed been a big story. It hasn’t quite become as ubiquitous in the Western world as it is elsewhere around the globe (like Asia), but the iPhone has made the mobile web much more enjoyable to use and more and more people are seeing the possibilities of having the web in your pocket. Verdict: Sort of right
预测：2008年移动网络的使用将是一个大故事发生的事情：由于iPhone成为2008年最畅销的智能手机之一(现在它是美国智能手机的领导者)，因此移动网络的确是一个大故事。 它在西方世界还没有像在全球其他地方(例如亚洲)那样普遍存在，但是iPhone使移动网络的使用更加令人愉悦，并且越来越多的人开始意识到拥有网络的可能性在你的口袋里。 判决：正确
Prediction: Mainstream media coverage will be a catalyst for the adoption of Web Office apps by consumers; and Microsoft will eventually be forced to change their Web Office strategy and offer a fully online office suite (but that latter won’t happen in 2008) What happened: Well, as discussed above, web applications did indeed enjoy almost across the board growth in 2008. Mainstream use is probably still lagging, but Microsoft is indeed planning to bring Office online starting next year. That very well could be the catalyst necessary to make Software as a Service the norm among mainstream users. Verdict: Sort of right
预测：主流媒体报道将成为消费者采用Web Office应用程序的催化剂； 微软最终将被迫改变其Web Office策略，并提供一个完全在线的办公套件(但后者在2008年将不会发生) 。发生了什么：嗯，如上所述，Web应用程序确实确实在整个市场中都获得了增长。 2008年。主流使用可能仍然落后，但是微软确实计划从明年开始使Office联机。 这很可能是使软件即服务成为主流用户规范的必要催化剂。 判决：正确
If you made predictions for 2008, let us know how accurate you were in the comments. Stay on the look out for our 2009 predictions later this week.
如果您对2008年做过预测，请告诉我们您的评论有多准确。 敬请留意本周晚些时候的2009年预测。
翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/2008-predictions-year-end-review/
相关资源：2008天津房地产市场年终回顾与2009年预测