剪应变和拉应变关系
My debut post into the world of professional tech blogging was a comparison of IPTV startups Joost, Babelgum, and Zattoo under the headline “Internet Killed the Television Star.” More than a year later, that headline is starting to seem more and more true. The Television Bureau of Advertising expects spot television revenues to fall 2% to 5% in 2009 over this year (in the US). “It’s going to be a miserable year for broadcast TV, which will allow them to redirect resources to the Internet,” said Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell Associates, according to eMarketer.
我在专业技术博客世界中的第一篇帖子是对IPTV初创公司Joost，Babelgum和Zattoo的标题为“ Internet Killed the Television Star”的比较。 一年多以后，这个标题似乎越来越真实。 电视广告局预计，今年(美国)的现货电视收入在2009年将下降2％至5％。 据eMarketer称，“对于广播电视来说，这将是痛苦的一年，这将使他们能够将资源重定向到Internet。”
Meanwhile, online video ad spending is expected to quickly ramp up to $5.8 billion in 2013, from just $505 million this year, and approach television ad spending levels. Understandably, WIRED Magazine thus ran a story in this month’s issue proclaiming Hulu, the joint online TV destination from Fox and NBC, as the new way to watch TV.
同时，在线视频广告支出预计将从今年的5.05亿美元Swift增加到2013年的58亿美元，并接近电视广告支出水平。 可以理解，《连线》杂志因此在本月刊中刊登了一个故事，宣称福克斯和美国全国广播公司(NBC)联合开发的在线电视节目Hulu 是观看电视的新方式 。
WIRED’s argument is that Hulu is free, legal, and on-demand, and it is for those reasons that web video is the future of television. That last bit is the most important — on-demand video is clearly a more desirable delivery method from a consumer standpoint, than traditional, scheduled television. You get what you want, when you want it, without having to wait.
WIRED的观点是Hulu是免费的，合法的和按需的，正是出于这些原因，网络视频才是电视的未来。 最后一点是最重要的-从消费者的角度来看，点播视频显然是一种比传统的预定电视更理想的交付方式。 您可以在需要时获得所需的东西，而不必等待。
There are two main hurdles to overcome in order for the IPTV future to become the dominant reality, though. The first is the relatively minor, but important, issue of availability across devices. According to Robert Bowman, CEO of Major League Baseball Advanced Media, which operates one of the largest live streaming video sites on the web, most viewers will watch video on the biggest screen available to them. That means people would rather watch TV on their television set, and not on their computer. So in order for Hulu, for example, to really be the new way to watch TV, it will have to be easily viewable on television screens.
尽管如此，要使IPTV的未来成为主导现实，有两个主要的障碍需要克服。 首先是相对较小但重要的跨设备可用性问题。 据美国职业棒球大联盟高级媒体(Major League Baseball Advanced Media)首席执行官罗伯特·鲍曼 ( Robert Bowman)称 ，该网站经营着网络上最大的实时流媒体视频网站，大多数观众将在可用的最大屏幕上观看视频。 这意味着人们宁愿在电视机上观看电视，而不是在计算机上观看电视。 因此，例如，为了使Hulu真正成为观看电视的新方式，必须在电视屏幕上轻松查看它。
There are a number of projects underway to make that happen. One is the Open Screen Project from Adobe, which aims to bring Flash video to multiple screens — computer, mobile, television, and other devices. Products such as Microsoft’s Xbox 360 and Apple’s Apple TV will also help to push web-delivered video onto television screens, as well.
为了实现这一目标，有许多项目正在进行中。 一个是Adobe的Open Screen Project ，该项目旨在将Flash视频带到多个屏幕上，包括计算机，移动设备，电视和其他设备。 微软的Xbox 360和苹果的Apple TV等产品也将有助于将网络提供的视频推送到电视屏幕上。
The other problem is one of infrastructure. A little over a year ago, I wrote on ReadWriteWeb that the concept of the television channel is dying. In the post, I laid out my vision for a future television utopia, in which all content was delivered on demand (save live content — which would be available on demand after conclusion), and in which air dates would become “release dates” for new content. Programming could be purchased a la carte or entire seasons could be subscribed to.
另一个问题是基础设施之一。 一年多以前，我在ReadWriteWeb上写道，电视频道的概念正在消失。 在帖子中，我对未来的电视乌托邦提出了自己的愿景，在该电视中，所有内容均按需提供(保存直播内容-完成后将按需提供)，并且播出日期将成为电视台的“发行日期”新内容。 节目可以单点购买，也可以订阅整个季节。
The major issue with my vision is that the infrastructure doesn’t yet exist to support it. The current broadcast infrastructure in the US could support all 110 million households watching the same show at the same time, but as I understand it, it couldn’t support all 110 million households streaming different content on their own schedules.
我眼中的主要问题是尚不存在支持它的基础结构。 美国目前的广播基础设施可以支持所有1.1亿个家庭同时观看同一节目，但是据我了解，它不能支持所有1.1亿个家庭按照自己的时间表播放不同内容。
The success of sites like Hulu and the growth of online video advertising revenue, coupled with the decline of spot TV revenue will change that, however. As I concluded in my RWW post last year, “the increasing popularity of web video and the ‘on demand’ nature of the Internet will force television networks to begin rethinking their delivery methods and eventually upgrade their networks to be able to handle completely on demand services.”
但是，像Hulu这样的网站的成功以及在线视频广告收入的增长，再加上现货电视收入的下降，都将改变这种状况。 正如我去年在RWW帖子中所总结的那样，“网络视频的日益普及和互联网的“按需”性质将迫使电视网络重新考虑其交付方式，并最终升级其网络，使其能够完全按需处理服务。”
For that reason, the future of TV might indeed look a lot like Hulu.
因此，电视的未来确实看起来很像Hulu。
翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/tvs-future-is-on-demand/
剪应变和拉应变关系
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