价值投资估值方法 小熊
Because SitePoint is home to the Marketplace, one of the web’s leading places to buy and sell web sites, startup valuation is something that we’re very interested in. Today, a new valuation tool launched called the YouNoodle Startup Predictor that gives predicted startup valuations three years out. How do they do it? And are the valuations worth anything?
由于SitePoint是Marketplace的所在地，该市场是Web上买卖网站的领先地点之一，因此我们非常关注启动评估。今天，推出了一个名为YouNoodle Startup Predictor的新评估工具，可提供预测的启动评估三年了。 他们是如何做到的呢？ 估值是否有价值？
YouNoodle’s main business, according to the About page, is providing a platform that helps entrepreneurship clubs to “manage business competitions, events, mailing lists and community development.” YouNoodle has deployed their tools to clubs at over 50 universities. The site is also building a social network for entrepreneurs, and their first public tool is the much-hyped “Startup Predictor,” which predicts startup values 3 years into the future.
根据About页面，YouNoodle的主要业务是提供一个平台，以帮助企业家俱乐部“管理业务竞赛，活动，邮件列表和社区发展”。 YouNoodle已将其工具部署到超过50所大学的俱乐部中。 该网站还为企业家建立了一个社交网络，他们的第一个公开工具是被大肆宣传的“启动预测器”，它可以预测未来3年的启动价值。
“This is the first time technology has been used to help manage risk and predict growth for early-stage companies,” said YouNoodle CEO and co-founder Bob Goodson in a press release. “For more established companies, quantitative, systematic decision-making for investors is standard – using technology-driven credit rating services such as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. But until now, no similar system has existed for companies in their earliest stages.”
YouNoodle首席执行官兼联合创始人鲍勃·古德森(Bob Goodson)在新闻稿中说：“这是首次使用该技术帮助早期阶段的公司管理风险和预测增长。” “对于更老牌的公司来说，使用诸如穆迪和标准普尔这样的技术驱动的信用评级服务，对投资者进行定量，系统的决策是标准的。 但是直到现在，最早的公司都没有类似的系统。”
But does it work?
但这有效吗？
I put the Startup Predictor through its paces using information from my small network of Ruby on Rails community sites. The YouNoodle tool asked a long list of questions about the company (we’ll use that term loosely at this point) and its founders, digging very deep into the educational backgrounds of each founder and how long we’ve known and worked with each other. There were some oddities along the way.
我使用来自Ruby on Rails社区站点的小型网络中的信息，对Startup Predictor进行了调整。 YouNoodle工具询问了一长串关于公司及其创始人的问题，我们将深入研究每个创始人的教育背景以及我们认识和合作了多长时间。 一路上有些奇怪。
For example, it asked if our company, called Railsify, was incorporated. It’s not. But then when asking for the titles of each founder it gave us pre-defined options that didn’t really fit the bill — we call ourselves co-founders, we have no officers. Later, it asked for information about the founding team, but only gave space for three founders — Railsify has four founders. Lastly, it analyzed our web site’s traffic and online buzz based on the name and URL for Railsify. The problem there is that Rails Forum is our most prominent product and receives the lion’s share of the network’s traffic and buzz. It never asked specifically about our products or other web sites.
例如，它询问我们是否成立了名为Railsify的公司。 不是。 但是，当问及每个创始人的头衔时，它给了我们一些不合实际的预定义选项-我们称自己为联合创始人，我们没有管理人员。 后来，它询问了有关创始团队的信息，但只给了三位创始人以空间-Railsify有四位创始人。 最后，它根据Railsify的名称和URL分析了我们网站的流量和在线嗡嗡声。 问题在于，Rails论坛是我们最杰出的产品，并且在网络流量和嗡嗡声中占据最大份额。 它从未明确询问过我们的产品或其他网站。
In the end, YouNoodle predicted that the little network of sites that my friends and I have built in our spare time would be worth $1,530,000 by August, 2011 and gave us a “YouNoodle Score” of 188/1000. I think that’s a valuation that we’d be pretty happy with, but how did YouNoodle come to that conclusion?
最终，YouNoodle预测，到2011年8月，我和我的朋友在业余时间建立的小站点网络将价值153万美元，并且我们的“ YouNoodle得分”为188/1000。 我认为这是我们很满意的估值，但是YouNoodle是如何得出这个结论的？
According to VentureBeat, YouNoodle puts a lot of weight on its algorithmic analysis of the founding team — their educational background and previous startup experience, their connections to one another, and how much work they put into the new company. YouNoodle uses “social network theory” to assess team dynamics and delivers a score that essentially shows the strength of the founding team.
根据VentureBeat的说法 ，YouNoodle对创始团队的算法分析非常重视-他们的教育背景和以前的创业经验，彼此之间的联系以及为新公司投入了多少工作。 YouNoodle使用“ 社交网络理论 ”评估团队动态，并给出一个分数，从本质上显示了创始团队的实力。
A couple of days ago, TechCrunch put some well-known startups through the predictor and found the results mixed. For some, it was way off, but for others it was on the mark — the law of averages would dictate that that’s bound to happen, though, if YouNoodle was just spitting on random valuations.
几天前，TechCrunch 将一些知名的初创公司放入了预测器 ，发现结果好坏参半。 对于某些人来说，这是遥遥无期的，但对于另一些人来说，这是有道理的—如果YouNoodle只是随便随机估值，平均值定律将必然会发生这种情况。
Both TechCrunch and VentureBeat think that the tool does a pretty good job of evaluating founding teams for comparison purposes — it thinks that Slide has a better founding team than RockYou, for example, even though the valuations were way off. That’s something that post-money valuations at both companies have born out (if that can be used as a good measure of the strength of the founding teams).
TechCrunch和VentureBeat都认为该工具可以很好地评估创始团队以进行比较，例如，它认为Slide的创始团队要比RockYou更好，即使估值远未达到。 这就是两家公司的事后估值已经老化的结果(如果可以用来衡量创始团队的实力)。
However, as Mike Arrington writes at TechCrunch, a good VC could probably do just as well at evaluating startup teams as the YouNoodle algorithm. Goodson hopes that startups will use their YouNoodle score as a key part of their pitch to VCs, but any founding team that’s strong enough to get a score worthy of using in a VC pitch is probably one that any investor worth his or her salt will already know is strong without the YouNoodle score.
但是，正如Mike Arrington在TechCrunch上所写的那样，一个好的VC可能在评估启动团队方面和YouNoodle算法一样好。 Goodson希望初创公司将其YouNoodle分数作为他们向VC推介的关键部分，但是任何一支强大到足以值得在VC推介中使用的创始团队都可能是任何值得他或她投入盐分的投资者都会没有YouNoodle分数就知道自己很强。
YouNoodle is based in San Francisco, CA and is funded by Peter Thiel, The Founders Fund, Max Levchin, and other angels.
YouNoodle的总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山，由Peter Thiel，Founders Fund，Max Levchin和其他天使投资。
翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/are-younoodles-startup-valuations-worth-anything/
价值投资估值方法 小熊
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